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Coronavirus- accurate weekly predictions on hospital admissions since April 2022.

Our growth bounds combined with the epidemiological model we published in December 2021 has been making accurate real time forecasts of Covid-19 hospital admissions in England since then. Had it been discovered even two years earlier, the pandemic response would have been totally transformed—removing any rationale for lockdowns and undoubtedly saving many lives.

Predicting Covid-19 Hospital Admissions in England: a sample -Update 31 August 2022

The Extended Gompertz Function model uses observed data to predict the course of Covid-19 waves with sufficient accuracy to plan for healthcare demands. It can be used for Covid-19 cases, hospital admissions, ICU admissions and deaths. At the beginning of an outbreak, bounds on growth are given by EVT methods. We illustrate the process for hospital admissions.

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