A In April 2020 we analysed all causes mortality figures with their historic levels first in a number of European countries and then in Brazil.
Based on our calculations of average expected deaths conditional on exceeding previous records, we concluded that deaths observed should not have been unexpected given the data history.
Our new phenomenological model for epidemics makes accurate predictions of the progress of Covid-19 waves available for anyone, using off the shelf software for non-linear regression.
Moreover, our powerful statistical technology gives excellent early stage bounds in each emerging outbreak.
Predicting the Course of Covid-19 and Other Epidemic and Endemic Diseases -29 December 2021
We present a new model for the accurate prediction of Covid-19 and other epidemics. In particular our projections of healthcare requirements have been reliable enough to allow planning for: hospital admissions, intensive care admissions, ventilator usage, peak loads and duration.
Predicting the Unpredictable -5 April 2022
A non technical version of our model for the accurate prediction of Covid-19 which shows that China's lockdown had no effect.
Omega Analysis in Health: Coronavirus Introduction -27 February 2022.
This is a brief introduction to how we use our model to navigate Covid-19 waves. It in we show how it applied to the Omicron wave in England and in Ontario, where flawed estimates of its severity caused significant planning problems.
In addition to illustrating the way in which the Gompertz Function makes accurate predictions of healthcare demands we also show how our Extreme Value Statistics can be used to remove uncertainties in the transition between the linear growth and Gompertz Function growth phases.
Colloquium on Public Health -25 January 2022
The Fields Institute- Colloquium on Mathematics for Public Health- Canada 25 Jan 2022
We discuss the Complete Gompertz Model, from the epidemic phase to the endemic phase, emphasis in hospitalisations for Ontario, Canada, in Nov and Dec 2021.
Accidents Waiting to Happen- Coronavirus Edition -28 April 2020, updated 15 May 2020
There is tremendous variability in historic records of deaths from all causes in Denmark, the Netherlands, Sweden and the U.K. Many recent analyses have compared weekly deaths recorded in March and April 2020 withy a 5 year average for the same periods. These comparisons are meaningless without an understanding of the distribution of above average data points. Our standard statistical tools applied to samples of deaths above the average rate shows the none of the events so far should have been unexpected given the data history.
Accidents Waiting to Happen- Coronavirus Brazil Edition -26 May 2020
Analysis of weekly deaths from all causes in Brazil puts into context the headline number of deaths attributed to Covid-19. It appears that corona virus deaths are consistent with those of the above average influenza-pneumonia season which should be expected.