Covid-19

Navigating Covid-19 Waves Using Omega Analysis’ model, we can help you to navigate through Covid-19 waves with accurate predictions of healthcare demands.

Coronavirus Services

We have several approaches to deal with the uncertainty caused by Covid-19.

We have a complete understanding of the dynamics of the disease, described in what we call ‘Extended Gompertz Function Model’, which we published in the last days of 2021.

Knowing the alternation between the outbreaks and endemic growth phases of the diseases, as well is critical times of change, herd immunity, etc, give us an edge that is then combined with our statistical ability to evaluate bounds of growth.

When the transitions between endemic and outbreaks take place

The resultant predictions have a high degree of accuracy, on the changing of phases and being at least 10% during the outbreaks.

1— Detection of the start and end of outbreaks and growth bounds

An outbreak starts with the departure from an endemic regime. At this point we know that a Gompertz growth is starting but there is a need for our sophisticated statistical tools to find bounds of growth that is accurate enough to give a preview of the gravity of the new wave. Our experience with the phase changing of Covid-19 allow us to detect quickly the end of outbreaks

2— Predictions and Surveillance during the outbreak.

Although we made the Extended Gompertz Model for Epidemics available to anyone wanting to implement it, we have a deep understanding of all its mechanisms, securing a quick response to the evolution of the disease. Our predictions are typically at least 10% accurate a couple of weeks into the disease.

We can also evaluate the likelihood of having reached herd immunity and other important points.

All of this gives an opportunity to make contingency plans. The accuracy of prediction of hospital beds





We have a complete understanding of the dynamics of the disease, described in

In our work “Predicting the course of Covid-19 and other epidemic and endemic disease”, which we published in the last days of 2021, we show that we can predict accurately deaths, cases and, most importantly, hospital admissions using widely available data.

Knowing the alternation between the rapid growth and endemic growth phases of the diseases, as well is critical times of change for growth regimes, herd immunity, etc, give us an edge that is then combined with our statistical ability to evaluate bounds of growth.




The resultant predictions have a high degree of accuracy, on the changing of phases and being at least 10% during the outbreaks.

1— Detection of the start and end of outbreaks and growth bounds

An outbreak starts with the departure from an endemic regime. At this point we know that a Gompertz growth is starting but there is a need for our sophisticated statistical tools to find bounds of growth that is accurate enough to give a preview of the gravity of the new wave. Our experience with the phase changing of Covid-19 allow us to detect quickly the end of outbreaks

2— Predictions and Surveillance during the outbreak.

Although we made the Extended Gompertz Model for Epidemics available to anyone wanting to implement it, we have a deep understanding of all its mechanisms, securing a quick response to the evolution of the disease. Our predictions are typically at least 10% accurate a couple of weeks into the disease.

We can also evaluate the likelihood of having reached herd immunity and other important points.

All of this gives an opportunity to make contingency plans. The accuracy of prediction of hospital beds