For contingency planning of all sorts, the critical questions are:
How likely is it that an event worse than X will occur?
When that happens, what should we be prepared for?
These are problems to which, at least in principle, probability and statistics holds the answer.
Omega Analysis Technology makes it possible to answer these questions quickly and accurately.
Accidents Waiting to Happen- Virus Deaths in Brazil Need a Context. -26 May 2020
We estimate the Excess Average Deaths in Brazil
Accidents Waiting to Happen- Coronavirus Edition. -28 April 2020
Our standard model applied to samples of deaths above the average rate shows that none of the events so far should have been unexpected given the data history.