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Coronavirus

A combination of our prize winning statistical technology and our new phenomenological model allow you to navigate Covid-19 waves.

Predicting the Course of Covid-19 and Other Epidemic and Endemic Diseases -29 December 2021

We present a new model for the accurate prediction of Covid-19 and other epidemics. In particular our projections of healthcare requirements have been reliable enough to allow planning for: hospital admissions, intensive care admissions, ventilator usage, peak loads and duration.

Predicting the Unpredictable -5 April 2022

A non technical version of our model for the accurate prediction of Covid-19 which shows that China's lockdown had no effect.

Omega Analysis in Health: Coronavirus Introduction -27 February 2022.

This is a brief introduction to how we use our model to navigate Covid-19 waves. It in we show how it applied to the Omicron wave in England and in Ontario, where flawed estimates of its severity caused significant planning problems.
In addition to illustrating the way in which the Gompertz Function makes accurate predictions of healthcare demands we also show how our Extreme Value Statistics can be used to remove uncertainties in the transition between the linear growth and Gompertz Function growth phases.

Colloquium on Public Health -25 January 2022

The Fields Institute- Colloquium on Mathematics for Public Health- Canada 25 Jan 2022

We discuss the Complete Gompertz Model, from the epidemic phase to the endemic phase, emphasis in hospitalisations for Ontario, Canada, in Nov and Dec 2021.